* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 130 125 121 114 106 102 96 93 88 83 81 V (KT) LAND 135 133 130 125 121 73 71 67 61 41 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 21 18 17 19 20 15 19 12 17 11 11 14 14 SHEAR DIR 236 252 241 251 260 253 257 299 280 324 300 325 310 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 159 159 154 160 164 159 157 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.0 -50.5 -51.3 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 13 15 14 12 13 10 13 10 15 10 15 500-300 MB RH 59 57 60 61 58 61 60 56 56 51 55 55 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 0 -2 -4 18 6 6 6 1 0 0 -3 850 MB VORT 17 0 -3 -2 -2 -18 -15 -18 22 8 0 8 20 LAND (KM) 176 294 335 300 154 -33 212 323 81 -155 -369 -430 -304 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.8 21.0 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 81.1 82.6 84.3 85.9 89.1 91.9 94.5 97.0 99.3 101.3 103.3 105.3 HEAT CONTENT 81 88 91 91 86 9999 51 74 39 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 520 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 125 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -2. -8. -14. -21. -29. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -30. -28. -25. -21. -16. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -13. -21. -28. -33. -38. -42. -46. -51. -54. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -10. -14. -21. -29. -33. -39. -42. -47. -52. -54. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 23.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 4.44 Prob of RI= 17.9% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)