* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 126 123 120 118 114 110 108 105 103 101 99 96 V (KT) LAND 130 126 123 120 102 74 70 67 54 36 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 16 18 14 15 17 9 10 1 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 247 236 233 250 263 237 280 260 317 297 37 140 13 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 159 154 157 164 162 159 155 154 152 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.2 -51.3 -50.0 -50.6 -49.4 -50.0 -50.1 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 16 16 14 14 12 11 12 12 12 12 9 500-300 MB RH 67 63 60 63 57 65 60 57 53 56 64 67 71 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 1 0 1 6 8 7 3 3 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT 5 -5 4 6 -1 -1 -6 7 -4 15 24 38 21 LAND (KM) 311 322 311 157 -19 69 374 183 -40 -273 -408 -282 -156 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.5 22.6 23.5 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.0 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 82.8 84.3 85.9 87.5 90.7 93.5 96.0 98.2 100.5 102.7 104.4 105.8 HEAT CONTENT 87 92 91 84 78 32 69 57 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 610 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 135 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 1. -5. -10. -17. -25. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -12. -15. -20. -23. -20. -17. -13. -8. -2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -20. -22. -25. -27. -29. -31. -34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 27.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.63 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 3.56 Prob of RI= 6.4% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)