* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 18 21 25 28 32 33 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 15 18 21 25 28 32 33 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 39 41 39 36 35 32 29 24 25 22 28 21 21 SHEAR DIR 279 286 292 287 283 285 276 266 260 251 252 264 268 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.1 23.4 22.8 22.3 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 129 128 127 123 118 113 106 99 93 88 77 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.6 -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -57.3 -56.9 -57.7 -57.2 -57.1 -57.1 -57.7 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 3 2 1 500-300 MB RH 55 56 62 59 57 67 69 68 67 76 70 73 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 -6 -15 2 -1 2 2 7 20 13 19 3 -13 850 MB VORT 2 4 21 21 7 23 27 33 31 38 1 -32 -51 LAND (KM) 1230 1298 1366 1431 1497 1650 1802 1956 2115 2266 2222 2197 2203 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.7 30.7 31.9 33.2 34.5 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 170.9 171.5 172.1 172.7 173.3 174.7 176.1 177.4 178.7 179.8 178.5 177.2 176.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 639 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 87 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 15 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -6. -14. -21. -28. -32. -37. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 12. 8. 1. -5. -12. -16. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 13. 6. 0. -6. -11. -20. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 38.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 2.23 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)