* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 126 123 119 117 111 108 105 101 99 95 93 88 V (KT) LAND 130 126 123 119 77 71 68 66 50 34 29 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 20 19 15 17 14 10 14 8 5 3 12 SHEAR DIR 257 249 253 261 259 270 283 294 327 5 34 355 21 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 154 152 159 165 160 157 154 152 146 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.1 -50.2 -49.2 -50.6 -50.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 16 16 14 13 15 10 13 10 13 9 10 7 500-300 MB RH 65 60 66 62 68 65 58 63 59 65 70 71 67 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 -3 3 8 1 12 0 0 0 0 0 1 850 MB VORT 0 4 14 3 -6 -13 -10 27 46 38 25 39 15 LAND (KM) 315 322 159 9 -68 174 364 142 -61 -314 -297 -118 -51 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.8 22.1 23.2 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.4 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 84.4 85.9 87.3 88.6 91.5 94.1 96.4 98.4 100.9 103.8 106.0 106.6 HEAT CONTENT 92 91 83 76 9999 45 72 48 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 638 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 135 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -5. -11. -18. -27. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -7. -13. -17. -23. -24. -21. -19. -15. -11. -5. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -25. -29. -32. -36. -41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -11. -13. -19. -22. -25. -29. -31. -35. -37. -42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 26.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 3.81 Prob of RI= 9.4% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)