* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 18 21 25 28 32 32 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 15 18 21 25 28 32 32 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 40 35 36 36 31 26 22 21 23 19 20 17 18 SHEAR DIR 282 288 285 286 291 278 266 258 248 236 269 274 281 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.5 24.9 24.3 23.8 23.1 22.5 21.8 20.2 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 125 123 121 115 108 103 96 90 82 66 64 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.7 -56.8 -56.8 -57.2 -57.5 -57.4 -57.0 -57.5 -57.6 -57.9 -58.1 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 1 1 0 500-300 MB RH 59 65 61 57 62 63 70 64 67 69 63 63 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -6 10 12 8 0 2 10 32 12 15 13 4 850 MB VORT 9 19 29 25 26 36 29 21 20 4 -42 -60 -79 LAND (KM) 1279 1354 1428 1505 1581 1734 1890 2042 2213 2337 2318 2351 2329 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.5 29.3 30.2 31.2 32.4 33.8 35.2 36.7 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 171.1 171.8 172.4 173.1 173.8 175.1 176.4 177.6 178.9 179.5 178.2 177.3 176.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 602 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 84 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 15 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -11. -17. -21. -25. -29. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 7. -1. -8. -14. -18. -25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 17. 12. 5. -2. -8. -13. -23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 36.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 2.28 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)