* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 123 123 122 119 117 113 111 109 105 99 89 V (KT) LAND 125 123 106 76 78 75 73 60 38 30 28 29 19 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 12 11 14 18 11 9 4 7 5 9 21 SHEAR DIR 231 244 262 255 242 274 273 287 343 47 87 53 60 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 154 152 155 164 162 159 155 154 148 139 134 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -50.8 -51.3 -50.3 -50.2 -49.5 -49.9 -49.6 -50.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 6 7 500-300 MB RH 57 62 61 63 67 63 67 57 53 52 56 60 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 2 10 11 0 6 4 0 -7 2 1 2 850 MB VORT 3 22 15 -1 8 -3 27 33 61 72 70 69 26 LAND (KM) 311 152 -17 -44 74 328 234 -10 -246 -406 -163 22 97 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.7 23.5 24.2 24.8 24.8 24.3 23.6 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 86.0 87.5 88.9 90.3 92.9 95.5 97.9 100.2 102.6 105.3 107.1 107.3 HEAT CONTENT 91 84 77 9999 29 60 59 34 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 550 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 130 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -17. -14. -10. -7. -3. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -18. -24. -35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -20. -26. -36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 30.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.03 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)