* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 38 40 37 31 24 19 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 38 40 37 31 24 19 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 42 40 39 36 29 25 22 26 23 24 19 13 7 SHEAR DIR 291 288 286 293 285 286 271 270 279 297 316 345 8 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.9 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 124 122 121 119 115 111 107 104 104 106 106 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.5 -56.4 -56.6 -56.8 -57.0 -57.2 -56.8 -57.2 -56.1 -56.9 -56.7 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 500-300 MB RH 58 57 55 62 69 68 75 73 70 59 58 49 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 1 3 -1 4 -2 9 3 6 4 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 24 37 40 42 51 45 51 33 10 -12 -76 -103 -126 LAND (KM) 1560 1633 1706 1783 1860 2017 2168 2081 1983 1890 1796 1724 1704 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.5 30.1 30.5 30.9 31.3 31.8 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 173.9 174.7 175.4 176.2 176.9 178.4 179.8 178.6 177.3 176.0 174.6 173.3 172.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 707 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 131 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 15 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -15. -22. -26. -29. -30. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 10. 3. -5. -11. -14. -17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 12. 6. -1. -6. -10. -16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 37.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.62 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 1.99 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)