* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 111 109 109 111 112 109 108 105 100 97 92 V (KT) LAND 115 97 70 71 71 73 73 49 34 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 18 8 12 14 14 11 6 11 9 9 8 8 12 SHEAR DIR 255 268 243 241 253 290 256 353 54 61 82 41 31 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 154 152 155 160 164 160 157 155 154 152 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -50.0 -50.6 -49.1 -50.4 -50.5 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 13 14 15 11 13 10 13 10 11 5 11 500-300 MB RH 61 63 65 65 63 60 59 53 65 67 62 60 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 3 5 10 7 8 0 0 -6 -8 0 0 -1 850 MB VORT 20 25 5 5 5 4 33 39 56 35 34 22 26 LAND (KM) 158 -2 -52 62 204 352 112 -133 -389 -341 -208 -89 -134 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.3 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 85.9 87.4 88.8 90.3 91.7 94.3 96.7 99.1 101.6 103.8 105.8 107.4 106.9 HEAT CONTENT 84 75 9999 27 49 68 42 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 596 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 130 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 5. 0. -4. -10. -16. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -10. -7. -4. -3. 0. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -4. -5. -8. -12. -17. -22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -6. -7. -10. -15. -18. -23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 41.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 3.82 Prob of RI= 9.6% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)