* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 39 41 38 33 27 24 21 15 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 39 41 38 33 27 24 21 15 SHEAR (KTS) 39 37 36 31 28 22 21 23 20 19 13 10 4 SHEAR DIR 291 287 292 291 290 279 262 276 266 295 305 317 307 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.3 23.8 23.7 23.8 23.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 122 121 118 114 108 103 102 103 104 101 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.6 -56.9 -57.0 -57.3 -57.2 -57.4 -57.5 -57.4 -57.4 -57.5 -57.6 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 59 58 63 66 66 74 76 73 66 63 62 59 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 0 3 5 0 12 11 2 5 0 0 -1 0 850 MB VORT 36 31 35 50 55 54 51 3 -20 -44 -60 -88 -95 LAND (KM) 1621 1699 1777 1861 1944 2095 2120 2027 1947 1857 1790 1754 1758 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.7 30.3 31.0 31.5 32.1 32.8 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 174.6 175.4 176.2 177.0 177.8 179.2 179.2 177.9 176.6 175.2 173.9 172.8 171.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 662 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 117 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 15 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -12. -17. -21. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 14. 11. 4. -3. -8. -9. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 13. 8. 2. -1. -4. -10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 34.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.62 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 2.29 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)