* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 43 48 53 60 63 62 56 49 43 37 31 V (KT) LAND 30 36 43 48 53 60 63 62 56 49 43 37 31 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 8 5 8 6 8 7 16 19 27 21 24 SHEAR DIR 32 36 47 67 64 52 81 100 109 108 107 104 100 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.4 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 150 146 139 130 123 119 121 123 121 119 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -50.8 -51.6 -50.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 2 500-300 MB RH 74 79 78 71 72 69 66 64 60 60 52 46 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 0 2 2 1 850 MB VORT 64 48 42 49 60 64 72 92 115 97 84 50 32 LAND (KM) 350 360 355 369 398 461 604 633 750 935 1103 1271 1443 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.4 17.7 17.7 17.2 16.8 16.4 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.4 104.2 105.2 106.2 108.3 110.5 112.5 114.6 116.6 118.6 120.6 122.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 511 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 28. 28. 23. 18. 12. 6. 0. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 13. 18. 23. 30. 33. 32. 26. 19. 13. 7. 1. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.85 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 5.01 Prob of RI= 61.1% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)