* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 110 110 111 113 113 110 111 110 107 102 97 V (KT) LAND 115 75 76 76 78 80 79 42 32 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 14 9 13 11 11 8 12 5 5 2 7 14 11 SHEAR DIR 267 273 244 259 294 288 330 2 37 118 6 15 23 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 155 159 164 162 159 155 154 151 149 149 148 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -50.2 -50.5 -49.5 -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 16 16 14 13 12 13 11 11 9 11 9 500-300 MB RH 68 66 66 63 60 60 59 65 65 67 74 63 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 6 5 1 6 0 6 1 -1 1 0 0 3 850 MB VORT 20 9 12 1 10 28 32 55 49 47 48 13 22 LAND (KM) 1 -48 61 185 334 224 0 -276 -379 -208 -148 -156 -96 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.7 24.4 24.8 25.1 25.1 24.9 25.0 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 88.8 90.2 91.6 92.9 95.6 97.8 100.5 103.2 105.5 106.1 106.1 107.0 HEAT CONTENT 75 9999 26 46 61 54 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 628 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 125 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 3. -2. -7. -13. -20. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. 0. 4. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 3. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -5. -4. -5. -8. -13. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 41.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 3.98 Prob of RI= 11.5% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)