* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 35 39 40 36 31 26 20 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 35 39 40 36 31 26 20 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 39 35 33 29 24 23 26 20 18 17 19 15 21 SHEAR DIR 286 286 287 282 275 262 258 274 279 312 330 336 325 SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.9 24.8 24.9 25.2 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 119 119 119 116 113 115 114 115 118 115 108 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.8 -57.1 -57.2 -56.7 -57.0 -57.1 -57.7 -57.1 -57.6 -57.5 -57.3 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 500-300 MB RH 53 59 64 65 63 73 71 66 59 53 36 43 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 -8 -3 2 1 16 -8 0 0 -6 0 3 -16 850 MB VORT 17 25 36 46 49 49 -8 -36 -60 -89 -125 -124 -128 LAND (KM) 1699 1747 1794 1915 2036 2041 1730 1563 1549 1429 1265 1270 1366 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.6 30.1 30.4 31.1 31.9 33.1 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 175.2 175.7 176.1 177.4 178.6 178.5 174.9 172.6 172.2 170.0 166.3 163.5 159.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 685 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 156 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -27. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 9. 2. -5. -11. -14. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 8. 10. 14. 15. 11. 6. 1. -5. -10. -19. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 94.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.58 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 2.21 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)