* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 49 51 50 45 40 34 28 21 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 49 51 50 45 40 34 28 21 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 5 7 6 7 6 11 18 21 23 21 21 SHEAR DIR 41 47 68 69 65 60 101 105 110 104 112 101 105 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.5 26.8 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 146 142 135 124 118 114 113 112 108 104 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 79 77 71 72 73 66 67 59 60 49 45 35 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 -1 0 850 MB VORT 47 42 49 61 69 69 88 103 103 98 81 68 51 LAND (KM) 374 364 374 405 421 519 571 609 706 840 964 1113 1269 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.4 105.3 106.3 107.2 109.3 111.3 113.2 114.9 116.8 118.6 120.5 122.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 505 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 74 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 19. 21. 20. 15. 9. 3. -3. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 19. 21. 20. 15. 10. 4. -2. -9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.45 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.03 Scaled RI index= 3.85 Prob of RI= 24.8% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)