* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 89 92 95 98 100 102 103 105 102 99 95 V (KT) LAND 85 86 89 92 95 98 60 37 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 10 11 9 13 10 5 2 4 7 8 16 SHEAR DIR 270 249 263 291 286 308 344 314 65 285 2 356 9 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 165 165 165 165 164 162 162 159 157 159 159 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -50.6 -50.0 -49.5 -50.3 -50.1 -51.4 -51.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 15 16 16 14 12 15 12 15 8 10 6 11 7 500-300 MB RH 64 62 64 57 57 60 57 64 68 70 73 68 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 1 2 0 5 2 6 1 2 2 0 0 -1 850 MB VORT -10 0 -2 -13 -6 12 23 46 49 43 29 15 2 LAND (KM) 3 112 237 370 366 110 -159 -425 -319 -156 -126 -163 -107 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 90.3 91.7 93.0 94.2 96.6 99.2 101.9 104.4 106.5 106.8 106.5 107.2 HEAT CONTENT 19 32 51 61 50 41 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 120 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. 11. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 19. 16. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 17. 14. 10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 75.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.44 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 4.99 Prob of RI= 36.5% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)