* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 37 43 47 47 44 41 38 35 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 37 43 47 47 44 41 38 35 27 SHEAR (KTS) 33 30 23 22 23 22 20 17 11 15 14 19 15 SHEAR DIR 282 284 274 263 261 247 245 235 243 226 223 225 249 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 128 128 127 126 123 121 121 120 120 119 119 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.9 -57.0 -56.7 -56.9 -56.9 -57.1 -57.1 -57.3 -57.3 -57.3 -57.4 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 54 63 64 61 63 71 74 69 63 57 55 51 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -17 -1 7 8 18 0 0 11 7 2 1 5 1 850 MB VORT 41 62 71 71 75 65 27 -11 -31 -58 -73 -94 -125 LAND (KM) 1825 1907 1989 2069 2148 2061 1960 1864 1774 1707 1666 1659 1655 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.6 31.0 31.5 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 176.4 177.3 178.1 178.9 179.7 178.6 177.3 176.1 175.0 174.0 173.2 172.7 172.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 713 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 115 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. -16. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 19. 18. 15. 10. 7. 4. -1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 8. 12. 18. 22. 22. 19. 16. 13. 10. 2. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 2.52 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)