* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FIVE 07/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 44 47 48 45 39 32 26 22 17 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 44 47 48 45 39 32 26 22 17 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 10 8 7 8 9 15 17 21 18 22 16 SHEAR DIR 53 63 81 99 84 101 134 115 101 99 100 105 108 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 146 143 141 135 130 128 125 122 118 112 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -50.8 -51.7 -50.8 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 500-300 MB RH 77 71 71 71 70 66 66 64 60 52 49 39 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 850 MB VORT 34 39 46 58 56 56 78 95 75 83 62 40 23 LAND (KM) 421 431 447 469 516 616 628 720 874 1019 1190 1378 1555 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.4 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.3 17.2 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.0 106.8 107.8 108.8 110.8 112.6 114.4 116.3 118.4 120.5 122.8 124.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 324 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 72 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 12. 7. 1. -4. -9. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 15. 9. 2. -4. -8. -13. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIVE 7/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.62 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 4.22 Prob of RI= 31.7% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)