* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 76 80 86 89 92 94 95 92 89 85 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 76 80 71 41 31 28 27 28 25 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 8 6 7 15 10 7 0 6 13 13 9 SHEAR DIR 278 268 306 296 288 318 325 14 109 20 40 46 58 SST (C) 28.9 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 165 165 165 165 164 162 162 159 157 152 152 151 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -50.6 -49.7 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 11 13 13 13 12 10 6 7 7 9 500-300 MB RH 65 60 57 59 58 56 58 58 64 65 63 58 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 0 2 1 0 6 5 0 1 0 2 6 9 850 MB VORT 12 18 7 0 8 20 48 48 31 35 15 27 0 LAND (KM) 109 235 385 347 220 -32 -273 -393 -193 -7 14 -29 15 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 90.4 91.8 93.2 94.4 95.6 98.1 100.4 103.2 105.9 108.1 108.1 107.4 107.9 HEAT CONTENT 34 56 69 63 52 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 632 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 95 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 26. 29. 31. 29. 26. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 27. 24. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 5.18 Prob of RI= 42.9% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)