* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EUGENE 07/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 48 51 53 50 44 34 25 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 48 51 53 50 44 34 25 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 11 11 9 11 12 16 15 15 16 20 13 SHEAR DIR 64 62 69 82 82 97 119 123 113 109 88 109 110 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.0 25.1 24.6 23.5 22.7 22.4 22.1 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 144 141 137 126 117 112 100 92 89 86 83 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 72 71 74 73 67 68 59 58 48 49 40 37 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 5 3 0 -2 850 MB VORT 31 30 34 38 43 58 66 70 86 69 70 65 51 LAND (KM) 369 403 421 449 498 515 533 636 716 815 911 1034 1160 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.4 19.3 19.9 20.4 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 106.2 107.2 108.2 109.2 111.2 113.4 115.5 117.4 118.9 120.0 121.6 123.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 439 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 11. 6. -2. -10. -17. -24. -29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 15. 9. -1. -10. -17. -23. -29. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EUGENE 7/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.46 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 32.5% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)