* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 65 67 70 73 77 79 79 80 79 79 79 V (KT) LAND 65 63 65 67 70 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 5 6 8 13 7 12 14 19 16 11 N/A SHEAR DIR 287 316 318 288 292 353 20 64 61 60 64 64 9999 SST (C) 29.4 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 165 162 160 157 155 154 151 151 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.0 -50.5 -50.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 12 13 15 12 16 11 13 7 10 5 N/A 500-300 MB RH 56 57 59 56 55 54 55 61 63 66 59 55 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 1 0 2 16 9 -1 -1 -2 2 0 N/A 850 MB VORT 14 8 -3 3 17 33 63 63 51 29 26 13 N/A LAND (KM) 216 347 377 253 123 -133 -364 -300 -215 -171 -96 -59 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.8 94.1 95.3 96.5 99.1 101.4 103.5 104.4 104.9 105.9 106.5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 67 66 54 47 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 672 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -11. -8. -5. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 4.73 Prob of RI= 26.4% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)