* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EUGENE 07/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 52 55 55 51 42 31 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 52 55 55 51 42 31 21 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 9 11 13 9 16 18 20 23 23 19 17 SHEAR DIR 67 50 59 72 71 71 77 86 81 82 90 83 101 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.6 25.3 24.2 23.7 23.3 23.2 22.5 21.8 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 142 138 132 119 107 102 98 97 90 82 77 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -50.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 70 73 71 69 66 67 55 53 47 49 42 39 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 3 3 0 0 0 2 850 MB VORT 32 26 12 14 16 19 22 37 47 54 65 47 33 LAND (KM) 299 295 298 321 350 389 333 348 393 447 599 720 811 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.2 106.9 107.6 108.3 109.9 111.4 112.6 113.7 115.1 117.1 118.5 119.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 531 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 63 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 6. -2. -12. -20. -28. -35. -41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 15. 15. 11. 2. -9. -19. -27. -34. -40. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EUGENE 7/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.22 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 4.08 Prob of RI= 28.9% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)