* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 88 91 93 94 97 98 95 92 89 86 82 V (KT) LAND 80 84 88 91 93 49 34 29 27 27 27 28 24 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 5 12 18 12 11 10 15 16 9 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 301 331 325 307 323 2 13 65 41 44 52 81 9999 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 162 159 155 152 151 148 145 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -50.5 -50.7 -49.8 -50.4 -50.6 -51.5 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 14 16 14 14 13 12 9 10 8 9 N/A 500-300 MB RH 57 56 55 55 56 65 62 65 70 62 60 51 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 3 4 5 -4 0 0 0 2 6 N/A 850 MB VORT 10 0 -1 11 9 49 54 32 38 31 49 23 N/A LAND (KM) 362 377 255 142 28 -222 -397 -215 -134 -96 -22 22 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.2 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.9 94.1 95.3 96.4 97.5 100.0 102.4 104.5 105.2 105.6 106.5 107.0 N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 68 57 51 42 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 688 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 18. 14. 11. 8. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 17. 18. 15. 12. 9. 6. 2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.35 Prob of RI= 16.0% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)