* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EUGENE 07/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 54 54 51 45 36 26 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 54 54 51 45 36 26 18 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 11 10 10 15 10 17 19 18 16 12 12 SHEAR DIR 38 46 62 69 61 75 78 72 83 74 88 79 97 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.5 25.8 25.0 23.9 23.3 23.0 22.9 22.2 21.3 20.7 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 131 124 116 104 98 95 94 87 77 71 70 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 68 71 70 63 69 60 58 51 53 48 42 34 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 850 MB VORT 32 25 19 28 26 28 31 53 38 50 47 44 45 LAND (KM) 267 289 316 354 335 275 304 362 407 504 659 761 858 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.3 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.5 108.2 108.9 109.6 111.0 112.4 113.7 115.0 116.5 118.3 119.8 121.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 584 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -23. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 7. 1. -7. -17. -26. -33. -40. -46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 0. -9. -19. -27. -34. -41. -47. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EUGENE 7/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.52 SST (C) : Value: 26.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 85.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.73 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 3.65 Prob of RI= 21.1% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)