* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 86 88 90 94 96 96 92 90 86 83 80 V (KT) LAND 80 82 86 88 71 41 31 28 27 27 27 28 26 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 11 18 15 11 10 11 16 12 12 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 321 337 322 331 340 353 41 71 63 54 58 124 9999 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 160 159 154 152 151 148 145 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.8 -50.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 14 16 14 12 16 11 11 7 11 7 10 N/A 500-300 MB RH 56 54 53 55 56 62 62 65 65 59 59 52 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 3 5 0 6 1 0 0 1 3 -2 N/A 850 MB VORT 0 0 8 7 15 54 57 43 34 36 25 13 N/A LAND (KM) 387 277 165 57 -51 -293 -353 -178 -126 -111 -36 22 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.9 23.6 23.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.1 96.1 97.2 98.3 100.7 103.0 105.0 105.4 105.6 106.3 106.8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 54 50 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9. 6. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 14. 14. 12. 11. 8. 5. 2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 8. 10. 14. 16. 16. 12. 10. 7. 3. 0. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.95 Scaled RI index= 5.32 Prob of RI= 47.3% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)