* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EUGENE 07/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 53 53 51 44 35 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 53 53 53 51 44 35 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 10 7 7 13 11 17 15 15 12 14 10 SHEAR DIR 57 57 84 70 59 78 85 84 95 103 87 108 105 SST (C) 26.8 26.0 25.1 24.4 23.7 23.1 22.7 22.4 22.0 21.3 20.5 20.2 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 126 117 110 102 96 92 89 84 77 69 66 66 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -51.0 -50.9 -51.4 -51.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 69 66 66 67 64 58 52 43 43 37 36 32 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 26 23 26 24 17 23 21 35 51 50 46 34 42 LAND (KM) 285 321 328 267 230 276 326 375 477 601 714 819 928 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.6 109.4 110.2 110.9 112.3 113.8 115.1 116.4 117.8 119.6 121.1 122.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 475 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -25. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. -1. -10. -20. -31. -40. -46. -52. -57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 3. 1. -6. -15. -25. -35. -43. -48. -54. -59. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EUGENE 7/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 25.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 67.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.54 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.19 Scaled RI index= 3.20 Prob of RI= 12.9% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)