* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 92 94 97 101 103 103 99 96 92 90 87 V (KT) LAND 85 88 92 77 56 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 14 15 9 9 6 11 13 13 8 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 329 327 329 332 342 16 46 54 36 21 41 290 9999 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 162 160 159 155 154 154 152 152 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.4 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 16 15 12 14 14 13 9 10 9 10 9 N/A 500-300 MB RH 55 58 54 59 62 64 65 69 62 59 55 46 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 7 1 3 0 0 0 0 -1 2 0 N/A 850 MB VORT 3 10 2 21 43 45 42 26 27 21 7 13 N/A LAND (KM) 268 167 66 -30 -131 -333 -353 -208 -186 -193 -141 -126 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.1 96.1 97.1 98.1 99.1 101.1 103.0 104.7 104.9 104.8 105.4 105.5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 51 46 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 615 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 16. 14. 12. 8. 7. 3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 9. 12. 16. 18. 18. 14. 11. 7. 5. 2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 79.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.97 Scaled RI index= 5.39 Prob of RI= 49.8% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)