* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TEST 07/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 86 76 68 52 41 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 94 86 76 68 52 41 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 26 29 31 30 29 28 29 34 36 44 49 53 44 SHEAR DIR 221 222 222 226 226 232 234 247 260 263 261 264 274 SST (C) 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 124 125 126 127 130 133 137 139 140 143 145 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 9 500-300 MB RH 22 21 20 16 15 15 18 19 17 15 14 17 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 0 3 8 6 6 12 -3 -2 10 35 6 850 MB VORT -12 -9 -8 -7 1 4 26 4 2 -13 -6 -18 -12 LAND (KM) 701 568 445 353 273 231 378 528 608 742 930 1137 1349 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 150.1 151.5 152.8 154.1 156.5 158.8 161.0 163.3 165.5 167.8 170.1 172.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 552 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -11. -17. -21. -29. -33. -36. -39. -42. -47. -52. -55. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -22. -31. -48. -60. -70. -78. -86. -94.-102.-105. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -14. -24. -32. -48. -59. -68. -74. -81. -88. -97.-103. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEST 7/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 24.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 43.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 4.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 1.94 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)