* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EUGENE 07/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 65 64 62 52 40 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 65 64 62 52 40 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 5 4 4 10 8 12 9 10 12 10 9 SHEAR DIR 52 75 87 101 69 91 99 103 99 112 106 128 115 SST (C) 25.5 24.6 23.7 23.3 22.8 22.3 22.0 21.7 21.3 20.6 20.1 20.0 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 112 102 98 93 88 84 81 77 70 65 64 71 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 66 62 62 61 59 54 44 42 41 40 34 28 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 1 0 0 850 MB VORT 30 29 26 28 29 22 29 30 48 40 37 39 42 LAND (KM) 353 278 212 207 235 277 362 466 542 641 796 934 1134 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.9 110.7 111.4 112.1 113.6 115.2 116.5 117.4 118.9 121.0 122.8 125.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 410 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -3 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -16. -23. -28. -31. -33. -33. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 0. -9. -19. -31. -40. -49. -55. -61. -65. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 5. 4. 2. -8. -20. -31. -42. -51. -57. -63. -66. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EUGENE 7/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 24.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 45.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 3.72 Prob of RI= 22.4% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)