* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EUGENE 07/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 50 49 46 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 50 49 46 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 3 1 5 8 9 11 15 10 11 10 13 SHEAR DIR 84 100 138 109 92 117 111 109 119 116 126 163 191 SST (C) 24.4 23.7 23.2 23.0 22.8 22.2 21.1 20.4 20.3 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 110 102 97 95 93 87 75 68 67 71 78 86 89 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 500-300 MB RH 62 61 60 55 52 47 41 35 33 30 25 23 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 42 40 35 36 32 28 40 40 27 20 16 18 21 LAND (KM) 304 278 308 356 374 504 655 776 926 1116 1336 1550 1700 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 22.8 22.6 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.6 112.6 113.6 114.5 116.5 118.5 120.4 122.2 124.5 127.1 129.5 132.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 386 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -26. -30. -30. -29. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -16. -27. -38. -48. -55. -59. -62. -64. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -1. -4. -13. -24. -36. -47. -55. -59. -61. -63. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EUGENE 7/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 23.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.11 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 3.46 Prob of RI= 17.7% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)