* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 108 108 107 106 101 96 91 85 80 77 V (KT) LAND 110 94 68 50 40 31 28 27 27 28 22 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 14 12 11 8 10 10 6 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 341 350 349 358 32 41 45 26 46 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 162 162 160 155 152 151 148 145 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 15 17 14 13 9 10 8 9 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 52 60 66 66 64 67 69 62 57 49 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 2 0 1 0 -1 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -1 22 35 30 31 35 29 28 24 8 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 91 -8 -111 -237 -364 -287 -196 -126 -37 15 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.0 23.6 23.3 23.0 22.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.9 98.9 100.2 101.4 103.4 104.2 104.8 105.7 106.2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 40 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 589 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. -28. -32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -9. -14. -19. -25. -30. -33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 52.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.23 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.6% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)