* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EUGENE 07/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 5 7 11 9 11 10 10 11 6 5 6 8 SHEAR DIR 54 54 67 86 91 100 103 71 87 100 112 135 176 SST (C) 24.0 23.5 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.3 21.3 20.5 20.3 20.5 21.0 21.9 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 105 100 96 95 93 88 77 69 67 69 74 83 86 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 64 60 57 55 54 43 39 32 30 24 23 19 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 33 28 21 30 25 33 38 35 23 30 26 30 36 LAND (KM) 238 247 302 351 374 486 659 777 927 1081 1257 1453 1531 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.7 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.5 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.6 112.6 113.6 114.5 116.3 118.3 120.3 122.3 124.3 126.4 128.7 130.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 526 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -23. -23. -21. -19. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -13. -11. -8. -5. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -28. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -20. -31. -41. -51. -58. -61. -61. -60. -59. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -14. -18. -28. -38. -47. -55. -58. -58. -57. -58. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EUGENE 7/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 23.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 2.09 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)