* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EMILY 07/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 110 111 111 110 106 101 96 93 88 83 79 V (KT) LAND 110 73 53 42 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 10 11 11 12 15 12 10 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 350 9 360 11 32 46 39 40 140 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 162 160 159 157 155 154 154 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 16 17 14 12 14 9 13 8 12 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 60 67 67 67 67 66 68 60 58 51 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 1 1 0 1 0 -3 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 2 17 11 18 25 21 17 23 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 3 -91 -187 -286 -386 -320 -260 -230 -178 -163 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.6 99.6 100.6 101.6 103.4 104.0 104.3 104.9 105.2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 578 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -16. -21. -26. -30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -14. -17. -22. -27. -31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 52.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.23 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.92 Scaled RI index= 4.97 Prob of RI= 35.6% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)