* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NONAME 07/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 53 59 64 66 68 66 65 60 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 42 47 52 55 56 54 43 33 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 10 2 3 7 4 5 6 6 7 2 8 SHEAR DIR 242 256 268 346 127 260 150 219 356 312 11 64 359 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 162 164 164 155 154 152 149 148 145 146 138 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 15 15 14 14 15 13 15 12 16 12 16 10 500-300 MB RH 48 46 42 44 43 42 53 52 48 42 38 37 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 4 0 0 -3 0 0 0 -1 -5 -7 0 0 850 MB VORT -44 -48 -57 -58 -62 -37 -45 -32 -79 -79 -110 -116 -146 LAND (KM) 230 238 238 147 11 21 103 174 93 115 56 -33 -128 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.6 27.5 28.2 28.9 29.3 29.9 30.7 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 76.4 77.8 79.0 80.2 82.3 83.8 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.6 88.7 89.5 HEAT CONTENT 54 62 67 83 74 13 29 27 23 20 26 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 512 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 32. 31. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 24. 29. 31. 33. 31. 30. 25. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NONAME 7/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.92 Scaled RI index= 4.82 Prob of RI= 30.2% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)