* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 42 44 44 45 45 45 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 42 32 29 32 32 32 30 SHEAR (KTS) 29 29 27 20 19 21 14 12 15 12 13 5 10 SHEAR DIR 253 266 270 284 284 314 351 359 8 359 9 34 20 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 155 162 162 159 155 155 154 149 146 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 14 13 15 13 16 11 500-300 MB RH 59 55 60 60 56 50 50 46 46 47 42 43 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 23 14 11 5 0 1 0 5 -5 -5 -1 0 850 MB VORT -86 -78 -81 -91 -90 -107 -87 -90 -81 -52 -86 -111 -128 LAND (KM) 122 188 266 269 295 230 24 -90 -34 44 101 22 72 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.1 23.8 25.2 26.4 27.3 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 71.1 72.8 74.2 75.6 78.0 79.9 81.2 82.3 83.1 84.2 85.4 86.4 HEAT CONTENT 60 53 45 45 55 67 60 9999 9999 23 22 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 573 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -25. -27. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. 20. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 4.36 Prob of RI= 16.1% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)