* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EUGENE 07/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 13 10 10 11 8 9 8 5 4 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 64 63 86 100 105 109 97 101 110 135 119 137 9999 SST (C) 23.5 23.1 22.8 22.6 22.3 21.5 20.5 19.9 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 96 93 91 88 79 69 64 64 71 77 83 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 60 60 57 54 46 38 35 29 27 22 20 17 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 N/A 850 MB VORT 36 24 20 19 11 27 34 26 24 31 36 30 N/A LAND (KM) 225 268 319 341 391 559 677 798 961 1136 1286 1411 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.4 23.6 24.1 24.6 24.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.2 113.2 114.3 115.3 117.4 119.3 121.3 123.4 125.6 127.4 129.0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 527 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -19. -16. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -17. -15. -13. -10. -6. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -21. -32. -43. -52. -57. -58. -57. -55. -53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -15. -20. -30. -40. -48. -53. -54. -52. -51. -51. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EUGENE 7/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 22.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.26 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 1.77 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)