* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EMILY 07/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 60 61 62 66 67 68 72 79 84 88 88 V (KT) LAND 70 51 41 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 13 13 11 5 8 15 14 5 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 318 350 8 355 17 32 5 53 264 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 164 164 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 17 14 12 15 11 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 66 68 68 65 65 67 57 56 51 47 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 10 1 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 21 26 27 28 21 15 11 1 -23 -9 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -111 -199 -286 -360 -435 -371 -356 -378 -363 -386 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.7 99.6 100.5 101.3 102.0 103.5 103.7 103.6 104.0 104.0 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 24 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -10. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. -19. -14. -9. -3. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -10. -9. -8. -4. -3. -2. 2. 9. 14. 18. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -10. -9. -8. -4. -3. -2. 2. 9. 14. 18. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -40.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 92.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.60 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.94 Scaled RI index= 4.69 Prob of RI= 25.1% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)