* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 37 39 41 43 45 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 37 39 31 28 32 33 SHEAR (KTS) 29 27 25 21 19 18 9 14 10 10 9 6 6 SHEAR DIR 262 267 276 284 288 349 3 17 50 35 72 46 55 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 154 157 162 162 162 160 160 155 154 154 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 13 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 500-300 MB RH 55 56 59 59 57 50 50 46 45 40 41 38 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 24 27 12 8 -6 -5 1 1 -1 -3 3 0 0 850 MB VORT -68 -88 -96 -100 -107 -123 -86 -62 -49 -64 -59 -83 -95 LAND (KM) 133 212 245 266 298 269 156 92 19 -57 -42 50 149 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.0 25.2 26.1 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 72.4 73.8 74.9 75.9 77.6 78.6 79.2 79.9 80.8 82.1 83.3 84.4 HEAT CONTENT 57 54 46 57 59 69 71 65 56 9999 9999 22 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 557 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -24. -25. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 18. 19. 21. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 3.89 Prob of RI= 10.4% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)