* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EUGENE 07/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 12 13 14 12 11 9 7 5 5 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 82 89 94 100 109 125 106 119 124 137 127 167 9999 SST (C) 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.3 22.1 21.2 20.4 20.0 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 92 90 88 86 76 68 64 69 76 83 86 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 61 57 57 51 45 37 33 29 24 21 16 15 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 850 MB VORT 25 22 14 6 20 25 34 28 23 21 31 39 N/A LAND (KM) 183 249 289 331 402 584 733 891 1078 1284 1442 1546 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.0 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.5 24.0 23.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.5 113.4 114.5 115.6 117.8 119.9 122.2 124.4 126.9 128.9 130.5 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 612 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -22. -20. -16. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -28. -38. -47. -53. -54. -53. -52. -51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -16. -25. -34. -43. -47. -47. -45. -45. -48. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EUGENE 7/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.32 SST (C) : Value: 22.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 59.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.87 Scaled RI index= 2.18 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)