* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * EMILY 07/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 35 31 30 29 30 34 37 44 55 64 72 74 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 9 6 6 11 11 12 1 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 354 16 9 23 38 31 20 194 117 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 160 160 155 155 155 154 154 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 14 12 14 14 8 11 8 12 7 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 69 67 69 63 67 63 60 59 52 53 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 29 32 35 33 26 30 34 -3 -1 -8 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -203 -309 -417 -394 -327 -178 -163 -185 -148 -141 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.8 101.9 102.9 103.8 105.6 105.6 105.3 105.7 105.7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 575 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -12. -20. -25. -29. -34. -34. -34. -31. -22. -13. -5. -2. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -10. -14. -15. -16. -15. -11. -8. -1. 10. 19. 27. 29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -10. -14. -15. -16. -15. -11. -8. -1. 10. 19. 27. 29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EMILY 7/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -45.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 5.06 Prob of RI= 38.6% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)