* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 37 39 42 45 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 37 39 42 45 35 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 28 27 21 17 20 9 13 13 8 9 4 10 11 SHEAR DIR 266 277 284 286 312 360 354 24 27 11 19 13 352 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 154 155 159 162 160 160 160 160 159 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 14 14 13 14 12 14 13 15 12 15 500-300 MB RH 54 54 55 56 50 51 45 43 44 42 43 40 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 25 8 5 0 1 3 3 4 1 -2 -2 0 -1 850 MB VORT -90 -101 -97 -98 -116 -114 -87 -61 -14 -44 -32 -73 -66 LAND (KM) 217 263 275 310 319 220 142 95 80 27 -35 -71 -7 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.6 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.7 26.6 27.3 27.9 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 73.4 74.6 75.5 76.4 78.0 78.7 79.2 79.6 80.3 81.2 82.0 82.9 HEAT CONTENT 55 44 54 61 61 69 68 56 53 50 9999 9999 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 590 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.18 Prob of RI= 13.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)