* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/21/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 37 40 43 45 48 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 37 40 33 29 33 36 36 SHEAR (KTS) 28 22 14 18 17 5 13 10 8 7 5 5 10 SHEAR DIR 280 287 289 301 337 346 359 39 18 74 28 70 8 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 155 159 160 162 162 162 160 157 154 154 151 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 500-300 MB RH 57 57 55 49 48 49 46 48 42 42 35 36 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 5 -2 0 5 0 0 -6 -2 0 0 0 -1 850 MB VORT -99 -95 -101 -115 -128 -95 -85 -35 -59 -58 -80 -83 -101 LAND (KM) 231 237 266 267 271 163 86 33 -47 -31 69 198 253 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.5 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.5 74.6 75.6 76.5 77.4 78.6 79.3 79.8 80.6 81.8 83.2 84.7 86.1 HEAT CONTENT 46 53 60 60 68 51 69 59 9999 9999 23 31 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 639 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -24. -25. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. 25. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/21/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 4.01 Prob of RI= 11.9% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)