* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 42 44 47 50 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 42 32 32 35 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 21 14 16 13 8 11 8 7 5 2 6 2 6 SHEAR DIR 288 306 304 341 359 350 17 347 42 122 79 219 54 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 159 162 162 160 160 160 159 155 154 151 149 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 15 15 14 14 15 13 15 13 15 13 14 12 500-300 MB RH 56 53 51 47 49 45 45 42 40 38 39 38 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 0 3 3 0 0 2 5 -2 0 1 2 1 850 MB VORT -101 -109 -123 -134 -122 -100 -71 -53 -68 -70 -100 -104 -126 LAND (KM) 299 331 338 302 209 121 57 9 -82 3 139 216 193 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.7 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 75.5 76.4 77.3 78.1 78.9 79.6 80.2 81.2 82.6 84.2 85.9 87.6 HEAT CONTENT 53 60 62 68 68 65 57 55 9999 14 30 38 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 668 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -28. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 22. 25. 27. 27. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 4.34 Prob of RI= 15.8% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)