* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * SIX 07/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 45 48 51 51 50 51 51 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 45 48 51 42 32 35 35 36 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 17 14 12 15 9 11 13 12 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 297 314 341 357 354 2 27 21 57 54 79 16 123 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 159 160 160 159 159 160 160 155 154 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 14 14 13 13 13 14 500-300 MB RH 50 45 48 47 49 48 47 41 39 37 39 39 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 4 0 0 1 4 0 -2 -1 2 1 0 0 850 MB VORT -101 -132 -138 -118 -103 -98 -44 -51 -51 -87 -93 -106 -100 LAND (KM) 441 437 348 283 218 152 125 64 -29 -35 102 101 111 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.6 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.9 76.7 77.3 77.9 78.7 79.2 79.9 80.9 82.3 83.7 85.2 86.5 HEAT CONTENT 55 56 53 53 58 53 50 53 9999 9999 21 24 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 736 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 22. 23. 23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 21. 20. 21. 21. 22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIX 7/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.73 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.94 Prob of RI= 34.6% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)