* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 45 48 52 52 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 45 48 52 52 53 53 35 30 SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 16 13 10 15 10 11 13 12 9 6 7 SHEAR DIR 297 316 342 359 358 5 33 29 52 45 70 22 90 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 160 159 155 155 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 13 13 14 500-300 MB RH 50 45 48 45 47 48 46 38 39 38 41 40 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -101 -133 -139 -119 -108 -90 -35 -24 -33 -72 -83 -101 -96 LAND (KM) 441 446 367 316 267 241 254 228 171 95 5 -73 -39 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.6 27.1 28.0 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.8 76.5 77.0 77.4 77.9 78.0 78.3 78.9 79.8 81.0 82.2 83.3 HEAT CONTENT 55 55 49 44 48 48 46 46 48 52 30 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 736 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 22. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.73 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.92 Prob of RI= 34.0% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)