* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * DONALDSON 07/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 90 83 75 61 49 36 26 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 96 90 83 75 61 49 36 26 20 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 19 21 22 21 27 34 42 44 43 39 40 50 SHEAR DIR 287 284 280 288 286 272 282 276 277 281 283 284 280 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 123 124 124 126 129 132 136 138 139 139 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 500-300 MB RH 11 11 13 15 15 12 13 14 12 12 13 13 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 0 -7 -6 1 0 3 17 0 -17 -1 0 850 MB VORT -3 -5 -7 -5 -9 -10 -23 -42 -46 -49 -32 -34 -34 LAND (KM) 710 581 451 347 246 92 139 335 415 502 615 768 945 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 148.6 149.8 150.9 151.9 152.9 154.9 157.0 159.1 161.1 163.0 164.7 166.5 168.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 582 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -29 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 1.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -20. -25. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -10. -13. -19. -24. -30. -36. -41. -45. -48. -51. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -19. -27. -43. -57. -70. -80. -88. -94. -99.-103. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -10. -17. -25. -39. -51. -64. -74. -80. -85. -92. -99. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DONALDSON 7/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 23.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 56.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 1.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 1.94 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)