* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 50 56 61 65 67 68 67 66 63 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 50 56 61 65 67 68 67 66 63 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 6 11 13 5 9 9 12 4 6 8 8 SHEAR DIR 343 21 30 357 357 18 360 359 13 6 332 61 50 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 157 157 155 155 154 152 151 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 47 45 47 48 49 46 39 44 42 43 37 41 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 0 0 8 4 2 5 -1 1 -8 -6 0 0 850 MB VORT -127 -109 -95 -87 -71 -13 0 1 -46 -41 -53 -69 -113 LAND (KM) 323 292 277 303 324 379 463 478 464 468 487 510 530 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.1 27.7 28.3 28.9 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.9 30.9 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.2 77.4 77.4 77.3 76.9 76.1 75.6 75.3 74.9 74.1 73.6 73.4 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 50 47 38 34 31 30 30 32 31 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 632 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. 27. 25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. 26. 23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 14.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)