* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 55 59 62 62 61 60 57 55 52 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 55 59 62 62 61 60 57 55 52 SHEAR (KTS) 14 8 10 14 13 9 12 19 10 12 10 11 16 SHEAR DIR 14 35 358 1 9 327 360 8 352 351 347 9 45 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 157 157 155 151 148 145 142 137 133 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 -53.0 -53.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 14 14 13 15 13 12 9 9 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 43 44 47 45 46 39 42 41 40 36 35 33 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 4 2 0 6 13 0 -5 -3 -9 -10 -19 850 MB VORT -106 -99 -84 -71 -38 -18 -10 -21 -20 -18 -8 -36 -51 LAND (KM) 330 318 325 365 397 515 538 548 599 701 895 1082 1082 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.3 28.0 28.6 29.2 29.8 30.4 30.9 31.3 31.8 32.5 33.2 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.8 76.9 77.0 76.8 76.6 75.5 74.1 72.9 71.6 69.7 66.9 64.4 62.2 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 47 35 27 34 38 20 11 8 10 15 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 627 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 17. 16. 15. 12. 10. 7. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.75 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.92 Prob of RI= 34.1% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)