* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 53 59 62 64 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 33 41 49 37 30 28 27 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 3 7 9 7 1 2 10 10 16 12 15 11 11 SHEAR DIR 190 164 177 208 345 98 38 42 31 12 22 28 34 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 157 155 152 151 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -51.7 -52.6 -51.8 -52.8 -52.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 12 12 10 8 13 9 15 11 16 11 14 8 500-300 MB RH 70 66 67 65 63 60 56 54 55 54 51 50 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 1 -4 0 0 850 MB VORT 17 11 2 -7 -19 -19 -23 -20 -31 -23 -3 14 34 LAND (KM) 53 -58 -137 -18 55 178 46 -81 -267 -364 -213 -96 15 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.1 20.2 21.0 21.9 22.6 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.8 89.8 91.1 92.3 94.6 96.7 98.6 100.5 102.2 103.8 105.3 106.9 HEAT CONTENT 71 9999 9999 38 51 59 72 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 535 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 19. 24. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 30. 36. 38. 41. 41. 42. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 34. 37. 39. 40. 41. 41. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 4.79 Prob of RI= 29.0% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)