* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 57 61 63 63 60 58 55 50 45 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 57 61 63 63 60 58 55 50 45 SHEAR (KTS) 6 13 14 14 6 13 18 18 17 15 14 28 32 SHEAR DIR 25 348 360 8 23 355 2 5 355 352 353 15 48 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 157 157 152 148 145 142 139 134 131 122 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 13 14 14 11 9 7 7 8 7 7 500-300 MB RH 45 45 46 47 46 39 42 46 39 31 32 33 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 7 7 0 0 14 6 -19 -6 0 0 -9 -12 850 MB VORT -97 -86 -63 -34 -34 -12 2 -42 -31 -10 -16 -47 -73 LAND (KM) 338 325 319 368 423 506 526 585 663 771 897 1042 1075 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.0 28.6 29.2 29.8 30.4 30.9 31.3 31.8 32.4 33.1 33.9 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.0 77.3 76.9 76.5 74.7 73.3 71.8 70.2 68.4 66.6 63.8 60.3 HEAT CONTENT 45 48 42 31 31 35 23 12 6 7 8 12 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 673 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. 7. 1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 18. 15. 13. 10. 5. 0. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 5.29 Prob of RI= 46.4% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)