* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 53 59 62 66 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 31 34 42 44 33 29 27 27 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 5 7 4 2 2 7 9 14 9 11 7 8 6 SHEAR DIR 195 180 204 188 121 67 66 33 42 42 67 69 56 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 157 155 152 149 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 8 10 10 11 13 14 13 13 10 10 500-300 MB RH 71 73 70 66 66 61 56 57 48 53 48 53 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 6 4 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 19 11 -9 -22 -16 -11 -10 -16 -13 -7 4 42 30 LAND (KM) -10 -132 -63 55 123 144 -14 -147 -320 -329 -197 -81 37 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.5 90.6 91.9 93.1 95.3 97.5 99.3 101.0 102.6 104.1 105.6 107.4 HEAT CONTENT 83 9999 9999 53 49 56 62 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 518 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 42 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 41. 43. 46. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 34. 37. 41. 43. 45. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.63 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 5.44 Prob of RI= 51.6% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)