* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 52 54 54 52 49 47 45 41 35 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 52 54 54 52 49 47 45 41 35 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 14 7 12 17 19 21 14 19 21 36 44 SHEAR DIR 337 1 5 359 345 1 1 356 348 359 14 12 8 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.8 25.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 155 152 148 143 139 134 132 127 114 108 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 15 15 12 10 7 6 5 6 6 4 500-300 MB RH 44 42 49 46 42 43 39 39 34 34 32 36 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 6 0 0 4 6 13 -16 -9 -27 -25 -11 -6 850 MB VORT -76 -68 -42 -39 -23 -42 -30 -28 -17 -9 -22 -34 -76 LAND (KM) 365 415 456 531 520 539 619 752 922 1061 1095 1058 968 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.7 29.3 29.8 30.3 31.0 31.6 32.3 32.9 33.6 34.1 35.7 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 76.3 76.0 75.3 74.6 72.9 71.0 68.7 66.4 64.0 61.7 58.4 54.4 HEAT CONTENT 42 31 31 37 36 19 8 8 9 14 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 769 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -3. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -4. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 4.65 Prob of RI= 23.4% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)